A few very small countries in the Eurozone, and a couple of larger ones – Italy and Spain – have borrowed too much and will eventually have to default. Let’s ignore the small countries, and assume Italy and Spain default. Their total GDP is 3.5 trillion dollars per year, the world total is 63 trillion dollars*. Their total debt is 3 trillion, of which say half needs to be written off. It’s do-able.
The real problem is not that these countries will eventually need to default, it is that Europe isn’t allowing it to happen. Iceland effectively defaulted a few years ago, banks lost money, the country is struggling, but it is not a crisis any more. Iceland, however, isn’t part of the Eurozone.
Europe is throwing good money after bad in trying to shore up these countries, and is only weakening itself in doing so. Europe must go back in order to go forward. What is spooking the markets is not the prospect of default, it is the prospect of disorderly default, events happening in an uncontrolled way. It does not have to be like this.
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Behind the scenes, governments are planning for countries defaulting and leaving the Eurozone. But they are not allowed to say so, it’s like revealing your contingency plans for defeat when you’re fighting a war.
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This uncertainty is classic Uranus territory. He is currently going backwards in early Aries, and will slow down and change direction in early December. That will usher in a new phase. We are likely to see some sort of bubble burst in the period around the change of direction, something like Greece defaulting and Europe having to work out the implications. Over this period, transiting Pluto will square the Asc, and conjunct the IC of the chart for the Treaty of Rome, the founding vision of the EU.
It may be that Greece leads the way. If it defaults and leaves the Eurozone, then a precedent has been set, if you like the unthinkable will have happened. Because that is part of the problem: Europe has been on a trajectory of closer integration for many decades now, often against sense, and the dream has never been seriously questioned. And the resistance to doing so is the real problem. So a few countries leave the Eurozone and maybe come back at a future date. It would be expensive, but do-able.
Europe shows all the signs of being in the grip of an ideology, and that is why it cannot sort it’s house out. It’s like the free market ideology leading against all sense to an under-regulated financial industry, which sooner or later goes tits up. Or the Catholic Church’s inability to deal effectively with paedophile priests, because it is unwilling to question the priests’ training which arrests their sexual/emotional development.
The unthinkable is good Uranus-Pluto territory. We are forced, institutions are forced, to question the unquestionable. I think this is the real issue behind the Eurozone crisis, because the practical solutions are relatively straightforward, albeit expensive.
There may be a much bigger problem looming that doesn’t seem to get a mention: Japan. It is the world’s 3rd largest economy, and it’s public debt is 198% of GDP. Compare that to Greece and Italy, which are a mere 143% and 119% respectively. Japan is way more indebted than any other major country. It has almost as much debt – 8.5 trillion dollars – as the much larger US at 9 trillion dollars. If the markets lost confidence in Japan’s ability to repay its debts, and raised the interest rates on its borrowings, then there really would be a problem.
*Throughout I’m using statistics from 2010
10 comments:
It seems to me that the stage is set for a MAJOR global economic crash in 2012. Unlike anything the world has seen before.
Would like to the thread on Japan via the charts. We were just talking yesterday about how we barely hear a 'peep' on the after effects of the nuclear reactor meltdown.......which concerns me that the effects are much more catastrophic than they are saying. And maybe 'meltdown' is symbolic of Japan's coming financial situation. The Japanese gov't did a surprise intervention in the currency markets earlier this week to suppress a too-strong yen. Your perspective is always so interesting.....and I say that in a very good way.....
Oops..... missing words in my first sentence. Want to 'see you follow' the thread on Japan......
Ohio votes next week on collective bargaining rights. These rights help set the standard for all workers not just unions. Established in the 1960's, along with women's and black's rights. It's as though were going backwards, it's embarrassing ! Jenni-omg
Thank you so much for all your articles about the current European crisis. Understanding the astrology behind the facts is most interesting!
I love the way you are able to articulate what rumbles around in my feelings and thoughts. Interesting about Japan - state governments on the US west coast are preparing for the arrival next year of the awful and toxic debris from the tsunami. Beaches and rivers will receive what didn't disperse or sink in the crossing. I sometimes think the US seat of government should be moved to Kansas City or Denver in the hope that its orientation would not be so eurocentric.
Japanese debt is mostly funded by internal Japanese savers, so there's no need to tap foreigners (who don't have your best interest at heart), for money.
Likewise Italy has always had a very big public debt, but traditionally this was held by Italian investors - like the Japanese the Italians are very frugal savers.
No, the problem is the Euro itself.Italy coped when it was independen as did Greece - Greek solutions for Greek problems.
The Euro is a complete train-wreck of a f*cked up disaster.
It was never an economic currency but purely a political means to force a federal Europe by an arrogant and out of touch elite.
I'm not a Tory, far from it, but thank our lucky stars that the right-wing Eurosceptics such as Bill Cash managed against ferocious opposition to stop the Major govenment dragging us in back ine '90s.
Rememeber in those days all the Tory top brass wanted us in, but grass roots pressure stopped them from doing so.
I feel like Neptune's shifting movement, shows me who's been driving the bus! Jenni-omg
Still not sure where you're going with this. You put the facts on the table, but draw no conclusion, so --
So maybe, as with the millenial shift in the 11th century, we're seeing the byproduct of this millenial shift, in the form of massive social change via internet/wireless communications, and economic change into something we humans haven't ever seen before?
Just asking, because I have my own debt to worry about and I really don't give a hoot about EU or Japanese debt at all. I think all the discussion about sovereign debt is a way to avoid the real issues, which no one seems to be willing to discuss at all.
Here's a quote from MMA Cycles, a weekly column by a financial analyst who uses astrology to forecast the financial markets, in the column for 11/7/2011:
"It’s either come together and reverse this trend, or continue to divide and fall harder, and then start all over. That’s Uranus and Pluto. That’s our future."
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